By David Goodhew In 1988 the diocese of Central New York had some 26,000 members. In 2018, this had more than halved, to 11,000 members. Contrast this with the diocese of Arkansas. In 1988 it had 13,000 members, half the size of Central New York, making it one of the smaller dioceses in the Episcopal Church (TEC). By 2018, it had grown modestly, to some 14,000 members. In 1988 Central New York had double the number of members that Arkansas had. By 2018, Central New York trailed behind the “Bear State.” The Episcopal Church has recently released its latest numbers, for 2018. The overall trajectory of recent decades continues, with ongoing decline in the number of worshipers, churches and members. Baptized membership has dropped by 36,000 since 2017, from 1,713,000 to 1,676,000; average Sunday attendance has dropped by 24,000 compared to 2017. The fall is neither markedly larger or smaller than other recent years. This means that the decade between 2008 and 2018 TEC’s Sunday attendance dropped by nearly a quarter, from 705,000 to 533,000. But not every TEC diocese is behaving the same. Radical shifts are happening within Episcopalianism. TEC was previously strongest in the North and East. These areas have seen marked decline. Conversely, some southern dioceses have shown resilience. The result is a rebalancing of the denomination. Advertisement The shift can be seen at the level of TEC’s provinces. Province 7 was one of the smallest in 1988, but has become one of the largest by 2018. Province 4, encompassing the Southern states, was the largest in both 1988 and 2018. But whilst Province 4 has lost 53,000 members during those years (dropping from 475,000 to 422,000), other provinces have fared far worse. Those covering the North East have each lost over 100,000 members in three decades; Province 1 (275,000 to 161,000), Province 2 (excluding dioceses outside of the USA, 337,000 to 191,000) and Province 3 (391,000 to 274,000). Given that Provinces 1, 2 and 3 were already much smaller than Province 4 in 1988, such drops accentuates the shifting center of gravity within Episcopalianism. Decline has varied in pace between provinces. Province 4 grew slightly between 1988 and 2008. Its decline has all happened in the last decade. But Province 2 has been in steady, strong decline for the last thirty years. The result of such shifts is that over a quarter of TEC’s members are in Province 4 as of 2018, whereas they made up about a sixth of TEC members in 1988. Close to 40% of people in TEC’s Sunday congregations are in either Province 4 or Province 7 (the Southwest). Since attendance in those provinces is shrinking more slowly than most other provinces, they are set to become even more prominent in the future. In part this reflects wider demographic trends; US population as a whole has grown most in the South and West in recent decades. Beyond this, important cultural questions are raised by TEC’s drift south. U.S. culture has significantly secularized in recent years, with that secularization most marked in the North and East. Will the corrosive acids of secularization will reach its southern dioceses at some point, albeit later than they have reached the North and East, or does southern Christianity possess antibodies that make it more resilient? Regardless of demography and the pace of secularization, the rebalancing of TEC is a significant shift for the denomination. In 1988, TEC was dominated by provinces 1, 2 and 3 along the eastern seaboard. This is true no longer. Its future lies further south. I am grateful to Dr Jeremy Bonner for assistance with the data for this article. Responsibility for all judgments in it is mine alone. David Goodhew is a Visiting Fellow of St. Johns College, Durham University, Vicar, St. Barnabas Church, Middlesbrough, England and co-director of the Centre for Church Growth Research, which can be followed on twitter @CCGR_Durham. 5 Responses Jason Newstedt October 31, 2019 TEC’s decline of parishioners is certainly attributed to their decision to erode their own foundation in Scripture and traditional values of faith. As a life-long Episcopalian, it’s been heartbreaking to watch both Bishops and clergy fall victim to pop-culture ideologies in a desperate attempt to keep people in the pews — a tactic they’ve been trying since the early 1980s (which, incidentally, was damage control for their mistakes of the 1970s). Sady, they have no one to blame but themselves. Reply Heading South: The Future of The Episcopal Church – Covenant | Fulcrum Anglican November 2, 2019 […] In 1988 the diocese of Central New York had some 26,000 members. In 2018, this had more than halved,… […] Reply Mary Barrett November 2, 2019 You must be using the term “Southern Christianity” to speak in terms of TEC. Having been born and raised in the South, I do not have a hope based on numbers but growth in the ways of Christ. The numbers will most definitely fall as the old white folks (which I am) die off. We leave the next generation a shameful legacy of racism, sexism and homophobia as we dragged our feet and conveniently looked the other way rather than lead to make a difference. And we have changed, kicking and screaming the whole way. Really, what is there to join? Reply Fr Mike Morrissey November 6, 2019 To put the decline in another paradigm, a loss of 24,000 ASA equates to 120 congregations with 200 ASA. It’s even worse if one uses the 100 ASA —close to the TEC typical ASA—240 CONGREGATIONS! Sure it’s spread out amongst 50 States. Still…. Reply Charles Chapman November 18, 2019 Re: the last sentence of the first paragraph. I have lived in Arkansas for 22 years and never heard it referred to as the “Bear State”. It’s much more common nickname is “The Natural State”. No wonder TEC is declining. We don’t know where we are. Reply Leave a Reply Cancel ReplyYour email address will not be published.CommentName* Email* Website Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email. Δ This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.